An intrusion into provincial affairs

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“WE SHALL not ignore democratic values. There shouldn’t be a monarchical system.” To foreigners unfamiliar with Indonesia, this statement last December by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seems innocuous enough. In Indonesia, however, it has touched off a storm of criticism.

The President was referring to Yogyakarta, where the position of provincial governor is held by hereditary ruler Sultan Hamengkubuwono X.
Thousands of demonstrators have rallied outside Yogyakarta’s provincial council building in recent months, demanding the continuation of Sultan Hamengkubuwono’s direct appointment as governor. The Yogyakarta legislature has also declared its full support for the automatic appointment of the sultan.
The unusual status of the Yogyakarta sultanate dates back to the independence struggle against the Dutch. In 1950, in recognition of his support for the nationalist movement, the current sultan’s predecessor, Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX, was declared governor for life of the newly created special administrative region of Yogyakarta.
Whether this arrangement was meant to be hereditary is the subject of some dispute. What is clear, however, is that while traditional sultanates in other parts of Indonesia were swept away by the nationalist tide, in Yogyakarta they were reinforced.
Successive governments in Jakarta have been reluctant to challenge the status quo, which remains popular among Yogyakartans, many of whom take great pride in the role their province played during the war of independence. The status of the Yogyakarta sultanate was further enhanced in 1998, when Sultan Hamengkubuwono X took a leading role in the movement to oust President Suharto.
President Yudhoyono’s statement late last year that he intended to change the arrangement therefore took many observers by surprise. Unlike many other parts of Indonesia, the province is generally acknowledged to be well run. There have been few reports of corruption, and even fewer attacks on churches or other religious minorities. In other words, there are far more urgent issues requiring the President’s attention than the altruistic promotion of democratic ideals in Yogyakarta.
The announcement was also badly timed, coming not long after the sultan won kudos for his handling of humanitarian efforts in the wake of the devastating eruption of Mount Merapi in October.
Mr Nico Harjanto, a political observer at Jakarta’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies, suggests that Dr Yudhoyono may be trying to undermine the sultan because he regards him as a possible contender in the 2014 presidential elections. The sultan has tried to run before, only to be thwarted by the reluctance of the nation’s major political parties to support him.
But this could change now that the sultan has joined media tycoon Surya Paloh’s National Democrat movement. Many believe that this organisation, which says it stands for good government, will eventually evolve into a political party. Mr Harjanto points out that if the sultan was backed by the National Democrats, he could become a serious presidential contender in 2014. Unlike other potential candidates such as controversial former general Prabowo Subianto (accused of human rights abuses), Mr Abu Rizal Bakrie (linked to the Lapindo mudflow) and President Yudhoyono’s wife (nepotism allegations), the sultan does not have any crucial weakness for opponents to focus on.
If this really is the President’s plan, it begs the question who he is doing it for. Unable to run himself in 2014, Dr Yudhoyono could be preparing the way for his wife. Alternatively, he could be trying to help Mr Bakrie, the President’s financial backer and one of Indonesia's richest men.
Meanwhile, the resignation of Mr Gusti Bendoro Pangeran Haryo Prabukusumo, the younger brother of the sultan, from the Democrat Party has weakened the influence of the President’s party in the province.
“I don’t want to become an insurgent (against the sultan),” Mr Prabukusumo was quoted as saying after resigning as chairman of the Democrat Party’s provincial executive board in December.
The greatest beneficiary so far has been the opposition nationalist Indonesian Democratic Party- Struggle (PDI-P), which has been leading the demonstrations in Yogyakarta in support of the status quo.
Little wonder then that as early as the middle of last December, Dr Yudhoyono had begun to backtrack, telling the media that he had been misunderstood. Yogyakarta’s monarchy was not a problem, the President insisted, adding that the sultan’s position was guaranteed by the Constitution.
Since then, Dr Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party has modified the proposed legislation slightly to accommodate the critics. A Bill currently being considered by the national legislature provides for an elected governor and limits the powers of the sultan to cultural affairs and land matters.
Overall, however, it looks like the President has stumbled. Whether Parliament accepts the proposed legislation or not, in 2014, Yogyakarta voters are unlikely to forget the unwelcome interference in provincial affairs.

Key Political Risks

The inability of the government led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to bridge the deep divisions between her populist government and its royalist opponents in the military and bureaucracy remains a major concern.

Prime Minister Yingluck has selected a competent economic team, but it is difficult for these technocrats to deliver on the new government's campaign promises without triggering inflation or hurting business. 

The government has also been unable to resolve the ongoing insurgency involving ethnic Malay Muslim rebels in the south.

 

WATCH OUT FOR:

  1. Attempts by the government to amend the constitution. The proposed rewrite is aimed removing legal measures initiated by the royalist generals who overthrew former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the current prime minister's elder brother, in 2006.
  2. Ballooning government debt as officials seek to finance government programmes aimed at subsidising rice prices in order to retain the support of farmers.
  3. The relationship between Prime Minister Yingluck and senior generals. Coups have been a common means of regime change in Thai history, and any attempt by the government to purge royalist elements in the top brass could trigger yet another. Thailand

About Me

My name is Dr Bruce Gale and I am a senior writer with the Singapore Straits Times. I studied at  LaTrobe University (BA Hons) in Melbourne and later at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Monash University (MA). My PhD thesis, which focussed on Malaysian political economy, was completed at the Malaysian National University (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia) in 1987.

From 1988 to 2003 I was Singapore Regional Manager for the Hong Kong based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC). 

I have written several books and articles on Southeast Asian affairs, including Political Risk and International Business: Case Studies in Southeast Asia (Pelanduk Publications, 2007). Books on language include Mastering Indonesian: a guide to reading Indonesian language newspapers (Pelanduk Publications, 2008)

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