A LITTLE-KNOWN opinion poll carried out in August and published by the Indonesian-language Kompas newspaper has thrown up some interesting information about voter preferences that could have a bearing on the outcome of the 2014 presidential elections.

Instead of quizzing voters about the personality they preferred, the Kompas survey took a different approach. Respondents were given a list of potential candidates and asked three basic questions about each: (1) Did they follow mass media reports about the individual concerned? (2) Did they like him or her? (3) Did they think he or she was qualified to become president?

Potential candidates with the highest public profiles were former vice-president Jusuf Kalla, former finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa, and Mrs Ani Yudhoyono (President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s wife). At least 70 per cent of respondents said they followed reports about all four in the local media. Next in line in terms of voter awareness (with at least 60 per cent of voters following their respective careers) were Gerindra leader and former general Prabowo Subianto, Golkar leader and tycoon Aburizal Bakrie, Democratic Party chairman Anas Urbaningrum and Mr Tommy Hutomo, the controversial youngest son of former president Suharto.

Voter awareness, however, is not the same as popularity. Only around 15 per cent of respondents said they liked Mr Hutomo, for example. And despite Mr Bakrie’s widely acknowledged political influence and financial clout, only about 30 per cent seemed to have any sympathy for him.

Mr Hutomo was jailed in 2002 for paying a hit man to assassinate a Supreme Court judge, but was later given a conditional release. Many Indonesians believe this was solely because of his position of wealth and power. Mr Bakrie’s popularity suffers from his association with a drilling company widely held responsible for the disastrous mud volcano that devastated a large part of East Java in 2006.

Mr Jusuf scored the best on likeability, with 60 per cent of respondents expressing approval. This was closely followed by Dr Sri Mulyani and Mrs Yudhoyono. Next in line, with an approval rating of around 40 per cent, were Mr Prabowo and Mr Hatta. Constitutional Court chairman and former defence minister Mohammad Mahfud was also in this bracket.

In general, likeability and voter perceptions about whether or not a particular candidate was qualified to become president were strongly correlated. However, there was one important exception. Less than 25 per cent of respondents saw the First Lady as suitable presidential material. Supporters of President Yudhoyono who believe she would be the best person to carry on her husband’s work after he steps down in 2014 may have to rethink their strategy.

But much more than this can be gleaned from the survey results. In Indonesia, money does not necessarily buy popularity. Nor does the backing of a major political party. Lacking both advantages, Dr Sri Mulyani outperformed everyone except Mr Jusuf. Indeed, opposition attacks on the reformist minister last year probably did more to enhance her reputation in the eyes of voters than any campaign by her supporters.

Despite the longstanding belief among political observers that only a Javanese would be able to gain the necessary backing to win the presidency, survey respondents showed no such preference. Apart from Mr Jusuf, who hails from South Sulawesi, Mr Hatta (South Sumatra) and Mr Mahfud (Madura) also won the approval of a large number of voters. And Dr Sri Mulyani’s strong showing suggests that many are willing to vote for a female president.

Responses to supplementary questions were also revealing. Indonesians, it seems, like their president to be relatively young, with 64.3 per cent saying he or she should be between the ages of 40 and 50. Asked whether they preferred a president with a military or a civilian background, many voters were unsure. Of those who did respond, however, working-class voters displayed a marked preference for a military man. Such considerations could have important implications for the sort of issues Mr Prabowo’s Gerindra party might choose to highlight should he run for president.

The survey had some limitations, of course. It is unclear, for example, why potential candidates such as opposition PDI-P leader Megawati Sukarnoputri and popular Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwana X were omitted from the list. Given Indonesia’s huge population, the random sample of just 828 respondents from 12 cities also seems a bit small. In a note on methodology, Kompas said the margin of error was 3 to 4 per cent. The newspaper also admitted that the sample was biased towards urban voters.

Overall, however, the survey gives just about everyone something to think about.

Copyright © 2011 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd