: Super User; Malaysia; 01 November 2011; Hits: 1466

Maintaining the Reform Initiative

After stunning the nation by unilaterally announcing a slew of popular reform measures in September, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak could find the political initiative slipping away from him in the coming weeks.

In his Malaysia Day message on Sept 16, Mr Najib announced that the controversial Internal Security Act (ISA), which provides for detention without trial, would be abolished and replaced with two new laws to address terrorism and threats to national security. Another security-related law to be repealed, he said, was the Restricted Residence Act. The latter allows police to banish criminal suspects to remote areas and restrict their movements - also without judicial review.

Mr Najib also surprised observers by vowing to abolish the Printing Presses and Publications Act. This means that newspapers will no longer have to reapply annually for permission to publish. The Home Ministry previously had sole discretion over whether to renew newspapers' operating licenses, and its decisions could not be legally appealed.

Dismissing taunts by the opposition that he was merely implementing the opposition agenda, Mr Najib said that he had wanted to announced such changes since he first took office in 2009. Only now, however, was the time ripe.

Having won the political initiative in this way, however, the prime minister is now in danger of once again being cast as the villain by the opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance. On Monday (Oct 31), the ruling National Front coalition was caught flat-footed when Malaysia's Court of Appeal declared a longstanding law banning college-level students from engaging in political activities unconstitutional.

The issue had been brewing for some time. Three students launched the court challenge last year when their university threatened them with disciplinary action after they allegedly campaigned for the opposition during the last general elections. The Kuala Lumpur High Court upheld the law's constitutionality, lulling the government into what now looks like complacency. Far better for the government, if Mr Najib had beaten his political opponents to the starting block by repealing the law before it got to the courts!

Another politically-charged legal battle is now brewing, and political observers will be watching closely to see who benefits this time around. Six Malaysians living in England have filed a lawsuit against the government, demanding that they be given the right to vote. They want to be registered as absentee voters, and be permitted to cast their ballots while still abroad.

Legally, national elections do not have to be held until 2013. But political observers expect Mr Najib to call them far earlier than this.

What the Malaysian expatriates want is not particularly unusual from an international perspective. Many countries allow their overseas citizens to vote at specially designated polling centres set up at their embassies. Current estimates suggest that there could be up to one million Malaysians overseas. But Kuala Lumpur has traditionally been reluctant to oblige, probably because of the widespread belief that a large majority of such citizens are nonMalays sympathetic to the opposition.

But Mr Najib need not worry too much on that score. Being overwhelmingly middle class, such overseas voters are also likely to be registered in large urban constituencies that would probably go to the opposition anyway.

Rather that wait for the courts to decide on the issue, Mr Najib has little to lose and a lot to gain by simply announcing that he intends to give all such citizens the right to vote. Denying your political opponents an issue upon which to campaign is always a good strategy.

Rating:

( 0 Rating )

Key Political Risks

Now that the general assembly of UMNO, the senior partner in the ruling National Front coalition government, is over, the long-awaited general election could be held at any time. Constitutionally, Prime Minister Najib Razak has to call elections before April 21st 2012, after which the Elections Commission must hold the election within 60 days.

Widely expected to be the most hotly contested in Malaysian history, the polls will pit Mr Najib's government against a rival political coalition led by charismatic opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.

While the opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance attacks what is says are the corrupt and authoritarian ways of the government, Mr Najib has been describing the opposition coalition as an unnatural alliance of Islamic fundamentalists and multi-ethnic and liberal parties.

The strong economy is likely to favour the government.

WATCH OUT FOR:

The size of the expected government victory, particularly the ability of the ruling party to retake control of key states such as Selangor. Mr Najib needs to win convincingly if he is to implement long-delayed economic reforms. These include reducing oil and food subsidies and introducing a goods and services tax to boost government revenue.
The ability of Mr Najib to placate conservative elements of his Muslim-based UMNO party who disapprove of his policy of boosting national unity through greater inter-faith and ethnic tolerance.
The extent to which the government is able to convince the public that the coming elections will be free and fair. If the election result is close, influential organisation such as Bersih could declare them illegitimate, and stage major protests.