: Super User; Malaysia; 09 June 2012; Hits: 1659

Delayed Elections in Malaysia

Defections by senior retired government officers, together with opinion polls showing his popularlity slipping, appear to have convinced Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak to delay widely expected national elections until later this year.

Most analysts expected the election to be held this month. But with critical dates slipping away, the betting now is that the prime minister will choose a date well clear of Ramadan, the Muslim fasting month. Analysts are now looking ahead to the next likely periods – the weekends before the Ramadan season beginning on July 21. Ramadan is the month when Muslims fast before the Idul Fitri Islamic Holiday, expected to take place around August 24.

If Mr Najib fails to act, parliament will be automatically dissolved on April 28 next year, the day his five-year mandate ends. No Malaysian leader has ever waited for such an eventuality.

At least four retired senior civil servants have taken the unusual step of aligning themselves with the opposition in the past month. Two joined the Islamic fundamentalist Parti islam SeMalaysia (PAS), while two others have openly sided with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR - Social Justice Party).

The two officials who joined PAS are Fauzi Shaari, former chief of the criminal investigations department and Nik Zain Nik Yusuf, former secretary general of the Land and Cooperatives Development Ministry. Their defections came less then two weeks after former solicitor general Datuk Yusof Zainal Abidon and Dr Rosli Yaakop, a retired deputy manager of the Central Bank made it clear that their sympathies lay with the PKR.

Mr Yusof's defection was particularly damaging to the government's campaign. After all, Mr Yusof was the government's chief prosecutor in Mr Anwar's sodomy trial that ended with an acquittal earlier this year. Mr Yusof's action suggests that even he did not believe that the allegations against the opposition leader were true. Mr Yaacob has also sought to bolster the opposition cause. Speaking at an opposition-organised forum, he made fresh allegations against the government over the foreign currency speculation scandal of the early 1990s.

Meanwhile, Mr Najib's popularity is declining. A recent opinion survey showed the prime minister's approval rating slipping from 69 per cent in February to 65 per cent in May. Many attribute this to perceived government heavy-handedness in responding to the April 28 opposition rally in Kuala Lumpur that ended in violence involving thousands of opposition supporters.

The rally, which began peacefully, ended in chaos after protesters broke down a barrier and police responded with tear gas and water cannon. The opposition blamed the police for the violence, arguing that problems developed only after police began using tear gas. Earlier this month, however, the government released a video purporting to show that opposition figures were responsible. It remains to be seen to what extent the video will change perceptions.

Meanwhile, the government is planning fresh handouts to poor families in August in an apparent effort to shore up support. It follows a similar handout of RM500 in cash aid last year in what the government said was a move to compensate families for the higher cost of living. The thinking now is that Mr Najib, who is also finance minister, is planning to present a generous election budget in September before announcing a general election. According to this scenario, the most likely election date is October 14.

Meanwhile, the political divide remains as deep as ever. Recently, Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin warned that the government was bracing itself for the possibility of violence from the opposition if the latter loses the coming election.

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Key Political Risks

Now that the general assembly of UMNO, the senior partner in the ruling National Front coalition government, is over, the long-awaited general election could be held at any time. Constitutionally, Prime Minister Najib Razak has to call elections before April 21st 2012, after which the Elections Commission must hold the election within 60 days.

Widely expected to be the most hotly contested in Malaysian history, the polls will pit Mr Najib's government against a rival political coalition led by charismatic opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.

While the opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance attacks what is says are the corrupt and authoritarian ways of the government, Mr Najib has been describing the opposition coalition as an unnatural alliance of Islamic fundamentalists and multi-ethnic and liberal parties.

The strong economy is likely to favour the government.

WATCH OUT FOR:

The size of the expected government victory, particularly the ability of the ruling party to retake control of key states such as Selangor. Mr Najib needs to win convincingly if he is to implement long-delayed economic reforms. These include reducing oil and food subsidies and introducing a goods and services tax to boost government revenue.
The ability of Mr Najib to placate conservative elements of his Muslim-based UMNO party who disapprove of his policy of boosting national unity through greater inter-faith and ethnic tolerance.
The extent to which the government is able to convince the public that the coming elections will be free and fair. If the election result is close, influential organisation such as Bersih could declare them illegitimate, and stage major protests.