Pacific Islands Forum lacks focus

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AN UNUSUAL confluence of factors attracted high-profile politicians and diplomats from all over the world to the annual Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in New Zealand earlier this month. On balance, however, they were probably more of a nuisance than a help.

The PIF is an inter-governmental body that aims to enhance cooperation between the independent countries of the Pacific Ocean. Most summits held by the 15-member grouping, which also includes Australia and New Zealand, are dominated by discussions about the economic aid proffered by its wealthier members.

Over the years, free trade, democracy and security issues have also been on the agenda. Australia deployed troops in the Solomon Islands in July 2003 at the request of the islands’ government after a widespread breakdown of law and order. Fiji was suspended from the forum in 2009 after the leaders of a 2006 coup refused to countenance early elections.

This year, however, the unusually large influx of politicians and diplomats from outside the region has underlined the extent to which other issues are diverting attention away from the development problems that the PIF was originally formed to address.

Delegates from countries as far away as Luxembourg, Bhutan and Hungary were in Auckland to lobby Pacific Island leaders for their support for a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council. China and the United States also sent high-profile representatives to hold meetings with leaders on the sidelines of the forum as the two nations vie for influence in the region.

US Deputy Secretary of State Thomas Nides led the most senior delegation Washington has ever sent to the meeting. The 50-strong US contingent included important Treasury and White House officials. Like China, Luxembourg and other visitors, the US <NO1>representatives<NO>could not attend official meetings because it was not a PIF member state. But diplomats from all countries held plenty of informal meetings.

After reducing its role in the Pacific in recent years, Washington now seems eager to get more involved. This year, the US Agency for International Development plans to open a regional office in Papua New Guinea to administer a US$21 million (S$26 million) grant to help the South Pacific cope with the effects of climate change.

China, whose influence in the region has been increasing rapidly, sent Vice- Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai. Apart from meeting the challenge posed by the increased US interest, Mr Cui was also presumably focused on strengthening Beijing’s diplomatic clout vis-a-vis that of Taipei. Six PIF members keep formal ties with Taiwan in return for extensive aid.

Other diplomats who went to Auckland included UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, South Korean Vice- Foreign Minister Min Dong Seok, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe.

France was reportedly worried about lobbying by French Polynesia President Oscar Temaru for support of a renewed campaign for independence. But it was Mr Ban who was most successful in influencing the general direction of the talks. The official theme was supposed to be “turning potential into prosperity”. But, with a series of high-profile speeches, he managed to put the issue of climate change at the top of the agenda, highlighting the challenges posed by sea level rises in small island nations such as Kiribati.

PIF states, meanwhile, were badly divided over the non-attendance of Fiji. This issue also received a lot of agenda time at the meeting.

With so many nations competing for influence, there was no shortage of aid on offer for impoverished Pacific nations. Unfortunately, past experience suggests that much of it will be wasted. As New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully pointed out, a great deal of money has already been spent unwisely. “There are too many examples of things being done in the wrong places, done in the wrong way or shouldn’t even have happened,” he noted. China’s refusal to sign the 2009 Cairns Compact, which seeks to coordinate aid projects across donor governments, is regarded in Canberra and Wellington as particularly annoying.

Although New Zealand chaired the summit, only Australia had both the economic muscle and the diplomatic clout to ensure that the conference remained focused on development issues. But Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard had to cut short her visit to deal with pressing political issues at home.

The release of the forum communique is normally regarded as the highlight of PIF summits. But as New Zealand Prime Minister John Key himself admitted, this year, the post-forum dialogue turned out to be more important because of the high-profile guest list.

Real economic progress in the Pacific, it seems, will just have to wait.

Key Political Risks

Asia is the fastest growing region in the world, and is likely to remain so in 2013. However, a number of risks cloud the picture.

The good news is that domestic demand in the region remains strong and should continue to cushion the impact of weaker external demand on overall economic growth. The completion of national elections in Japan and South Korea in December 2012 should also help reduce political uncertainties. 

But Asian governments will need to guard against the adverse impact of prolonged easy financial conditions on inflation.

Rising inequality also continues to threaten social stability. Ethnic and religious rivalries remain just below the surface in many countries. When combined with government corruption and (in some countries) high youth unemployment, this could become a deadly mix. This seems particularly true of China.

Territorial disputes also require close monitoring. Much diplomatic activity in the new year is likely to be centered on finding ways to reduce tensions over resource-rich islands in the South China Sea, where Beijing's claims overlap with those of Japan, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian states. South Korea and Japan also have rival territorial claims.

North Korea remains the wild card. Inclined to believe its own propaganda, Pyongyang's new leadership could miscalculate, making belligerent moves that plunge the region into a military conflict that nobody wants.

About Me

My name is Dr Bruce Gale and I am a senior writer with the Singapore Straits Times. I studied at  LaTrobe University (BA Hons) in Melbourne and later at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Monash University (MA). My PhD thesis, which focussed on Malaysian political economy, was completed at the Malaysian National University (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia) in 1987.

From 1988 to 2003 I was Singapore Regional Manager for the Hong Kong based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC). 

I have written several books and articles on Southeast Asian affairs, including Political Risk and International Business: Case Studies in Southeast Asia (Pelanduk Publications, 2007). Books on language include Mastering Indonesian: a guide to reading Indonesian language newspapers (Pelanduk Publications, 2008)

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