: Super User; Region; 20 April 2011; Hits: 1133

Australia Rudd-erless in South Pacific

AUSTRALIAN Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd is presiding over “an erosion of Australian influence” in its own back yard. This was the conclusion of deputy Liberal Party leader Julie Bishop late last month when she signalled an end to bipartisan support for Canberra’s policies in the South Pacific.

Mr Rudd, Ms Bishop admitted, had a real passion for foreign policy. But by spending too much time focusing on other parts of the world, he had not been giving due attention to developments closer to home.

The opposition may well have a point. Between September last year and this February, Mr Rudd visited Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Brazil, Chile, Bali, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, China, South Korea, Japan, Belgium and Italy. But despite spending more than half his tenure as Foreign Minister overseas, he has yet to visit a South Pacific nation.

The election of Fijian dictator Commodore Frank Bainimarama as head of the Chinese-backed Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) in Suva last month despite opposition from Canberra and Wellington underlined the point. Australia and New Zealand have been pressuring Mr Bainimarama to return the country to democratic rule since 2006, when he came to power following a military coup. But he has been dragging his feet, saying that he will not hold elections until 2014, after a new Constitution is drawn up.

Canberra and Wellington imposed sanctions, including travel restrictions on Fiji government leaders. In 2009, Australia also successfully sought Fiji’s suspension from both the Pacific Islands Forum and the Commonwealth. But despite this, the election of Mr Bainimarama as head of the sub-regional MSG suggests that he retains considerable diplomatic influence.

Established in 1971, the Pacific Islands Forum aims to enhance cooperation among the countries of the Pacific Ocean. The security forces as well as civilian personnel of member states, particularly those of Australia and New Zealand, have been involved in regional peacekeeping and stabilisation operations.

The MSG is a smaller grouping consisting of just four member states – Fiji, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Formalised in 2007, the MSG’s importance lies in the fact that it includes the largest economies among the Pacific Islands. Member states have concluded a preferential trade agreement among themselves.

Ms Bishop also raised concerns about China’s growing influence.

In April 2006, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao attended the first China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Forum in Fiji where he announced hundreds of millions of dollars in preferential loans (mostly for infrastructure projects) over three years. Some island nations are believed to be taking on Chinese loans with the expectation that Beijing will forgive the debts after an appropriate time has elapsed.

Australian observers also note that since the election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou in 2008, the primary driver of China’s engagement in the Pacific no longer appears to be competition with Taiwan for diplomatic recognition. In fact, no country has changed its diplomatic recognition since 2007.

Meanwhile, Ms Bishop argues, Australia’s tough line towards Mr Bainimarama is driving him to look to China for help.

New Zealand appears to be rethinking its strategy. Earlier this month, Foreign Minister Murray McCully said Wellington’s bans on travel for Fiji’s parliamentarians might be lifted if the regime could show proof that its plans for democratic elections were genuine.

Mr McCully certainly appears to be more engaged in the region. Last August, he visited Suva, and last month, he went to Vanuatu for a ministerial contact group meeting. Australia, by contrast, sent a relatively junior representative, Parliamentary Secretary for Pacific Islands Affairs Richard Marles.

Defending himself against his critics, Mr Rudd has pointed out that the government has increased its development assistance budget to the South Pacific by 40 per cent. He also pointed out that the Labor government has paid more attention to regional institutions such as the Pacific Island Forum than the previous government.

He can also point to recent opinion surveys showing that – with the exception of Fiji – most Pacific islanders regard Australia positively.

Even so, important changes in Canberra’s approach to the South Pacific may well be imminent. Mr Rudd is due to meet Papua New Guinea leader Michael Somare in Port Moresby next month. It would not be surprising if he took the opportunity to seek the PNG leader’s views about how Canberra can improve its standing in the region.

Rating:

( 0 Rating )

Key Political Risks

Asia is the fastest growing region in the world, and is likely to remain so in 2013. However, a number of risks cloud the picture.

The good news is that domestic demand in the region remains strong and should continue to cushion the impact of weaker external demand on overall economic growth. The completion of national elections in Japan and South Korea in December 2012 should also help reduce political uncertainties.

But Asian governments will need to guard against the adverse impact of prolonged easy financial conditions on inflation.

Rising inequality also continues to threaten social stability. Ethnic and religious rivalries remain just below the surface in many countries. When combined with government corruption and (in some countries) high youth unemployment, this could become a deadly mix. This seems particularly true of China.

Territorial disputes also require close monitoring. Much diplomatic activity in the new year is likely to be centered on finding ways to reduce tensions over resource-rich islands in the South China Sea, where Beijing's claims overlap with those of Japan, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian states. South Korea and Japan also have rival territorial claims.

North Korea remains the wild card. Inclined to believe its own propaganda, Pyongyang's new leadership could miscalculate, making belligerent moves that plunge the region into a military conflict that nobody wants.