: Super User; Region; 03 July 2012; Hits: 1355

Australia's Changing Demographics and the Asian Century

“THE Asian Century is upon us,” declared an article in the Adelaide Advertiser last month as the local media trumpeted the results of the 2011 Census. Indeed, for those Australians who have long believed their country should embrace Asia rather than cling to outdated ideas about preserving the nation’s status as a European enclave, the census had some encouraging news. But the data also revealed several potentially disturbing trends that could have an impact on Australia’s relations with neighbouring nations.

Nationally, Chinese is now the most common language spoken after English, displacing Italian and Greek for the first time. Meanwhile, the number of Muslims has reached almost half a million.

In Sydney, the nation’s most cosmopolitan city, more than a third of residents were born outside the nation. About 40 per cent of the city’s population also speak a language other than English at home.

For a country seeking greater engagement with its Asian neighbours, all this sounds like good news. However, there are also other developments to consider. One of these is the shift towards the sort of liberal social attitudes that are unlikely to be appreciated in more conservative Asian societies.

Responding to the census, almost 34,000 couples identified themselves as being in a same-sex union. Since this was the first time census officials have counted such relationships, it is not possible to compare this figure with that of previous years. But gay marriage, although not yet legally recognised, is certainly becoming more socially acceptable.

Several politicians are openly gay, including Greens leader Bob Brown and Finance Minister Penny Wong. Eventually, one will serve as foreign minister, possibly leading to awkward moments in Canberra’s relations with nations such as Indonesia and Pakistan.

The census also showed more Australians are identifying themselves as having no religious affiliation. The proportion rose to 22.3 per cent of the population last year, up from 18.7 per cent in the 2006 census. How such Australians will relate to Asia, where religion is an integral part of the daily lives of millions, is tough to say.

But perhaps the most serious problem is domestic. Most native English speakers remain monolingual, with a large majority having little more than a passing acquaintance with another language. How will they adapt to the Asian Century?

According to University of Western Australia’s arts, humanities and social sciences dean Krishna Sen, Australia is one of the worst countries in the world at teaching schoolchildren a second language. Few learn a foreign language in school, and fewer still become even remotely proficient.

It is not just about the additional opportunities that bilingualism creates. Researchers argue that learning a second language builds brain power, particularly in the young. Some politicians have advocated increasing the proportion of students studying foreign languages in schools.

But the current trend seems to be in the opposite direction. Recently, the University of Sydney shut down a Hindi programme it ran for more than three decades.

Yet another problem highlighted by the census is the rapid development of cultural enclaves. Migrants make up about 70 per cent of the population in some Melbourne suburbs. Barely a quarter of the residents in the suburb of Clayton, for example, were born in Australia. It is dominated by Chinese, Indians and Malaysians.

But while this can be partly explained by the fact that Clayton is home to Monash University, where there is a large foreign enrolment, the same cannot be said of Box Hill. In that area, migrants comprise well over half the population. Almost one in four was born in China or Hong Kong.

As Australia becomes increasingly integrated economically with Asia, its growing foreign-born bilingual and multilingual population will enjoy a competitive advantage over monolingual residents. And this, together with the emergence of cultural and linguistic enclaves, may lead to increased social tensions.

Such developments could put serious strains on diplomatic relations. In 2009, reports of allegedly racially motivated attacks on Indian students in Melbourne triggered a strong response in India. Effigies of then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd were burned in New Delhi, and right-wing politicians in the country warned of revenge attacks on Australian citizens.

Australia’s population increased by 302,600 people to 22.5 million between 2006 and last year – most of them were migrants. And for the first time, the majority of these migrants came from Asia, not Europe.

“We are substantially, significantly, different from what we were five years ago,” 2011 Census executive director Andrew Henderson told the Australian media.

How current demographic trends will influence the country’s future relations with Asia, however, is far from clear.

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Key Political Risks

Asia is the fastest growing region in the world, and is likely to remain so in 2013. However, a number of risks cloud the picture.

The good news is that domestic demand in the region remains strong and should continue to cushion the impact of weaker external demand on overall economic growth. The completion of national elections in Japan and South Korea in December 2012 should also help reduce political uncertainties.

But Asian governments will need to guard against the adverse impact of prolonged easy financial conditions on inflation.

Rising inequality also continues to threaten social stability. Ethnic and religious rivalries remain just below the surface in many countries. When combined with government corruption and (in some countries) high youth unemployment, this could become a deadly mix. This seems particularly true of China.

Territorial disputes also require close monitoring. Much diplomatic activity in the new year is likely to be centered on finding ways to reduce tensions over resource-rich islands in the South China Sea, where Beijing's claims overlap with those of Japan, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian states. South Korea and Japan also have rival territorial claims.

North Korea remains the wild card. Inclined to believe its own propaganda, Pyongyang's new leadership could miscalculate, making belligerent moves that plunge the region into a military conflict that nobody wants.