Cold Winter Ahead for South Koreans

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This winter South Koreans will be swallowing their pride to endure an unprecedented round of electricity rationing.

South Korea is not usually lumped with nations such as Indonesia and the Philippines when it comes to infrastructure deficiencies. Indeed, the country prides itself on its high-quality transportation and communications systems. It is also eager to export its expertise in nuclear power.

But on Sept 15, a five-hour nationwide power outage left more than a thousand people trapped in lifts, stopped factory assembly lines and left major roads in gridlock as traffic lights failed.

As the country fumed, the influential Chosun Ilbo daily called for tough action. "Those who are responsible for the shameful blackouts... must be punished," it thundered in an editorial.

The first response of embarrassed officials was to search for explanations that avoided any reference to systemic failure. Since then, however, it has become clear that poor planning, delays in power plant construction and the reluctance of politicians to raise politically sensitive electricity prices were the main culprits.

As the September blackout revealed, reserve power now stands at dangerously low levels. Since it takes about four years to build a power plant from scratch, the only thing the government can do now is find ways to reduce demand. And this, in turn, could have a serious impact on economic growth.

On Nov 10, the government announced tough new energy-saving measures that will affect 14,000 factories and large office buildings across the country. Another 47,000 small and medium-sized commercial buildings are also involved.

All will be required to maintain indoor temperatures at 20 deg C or less during the coming winter. The mandatory energy saving measures will begin on Dec 5 and continue until Feb 28. Most major corporations in South Korea are equipped with emergency generators. But if the power shortages continue, as now seems likely, they may be forced to cut production or delay expansion plans.

South Korea is home to the world’s largest chipmaker Samsung Electronics, as well as runner-up Hynix Semiconductor. The country also houses Posco, a major player in the global steel industry. All are heavy electricity users.

Successive governments have kept electricity prices artificially low in order to hold down inflation and appease voters. Korea Electric Power Corp (Kepco) figures show Britain’s electricity price is about twice that of South Korea, while Japan’s is around 21/2 times as much.

It is not just consumers who have benefited. Analysts say that Hyundai Steel Co, the nation’s second-largest steelmaker, paid just 303.9 billion won (S$345.5 million) for its electricity consumption last year. The figure would have reached 808.3 billion won if the company were based in Japan.

Keeping electricity prices down has almost certainly encouraged a rapid rise in demand. In 2009, national per capita consumption was 8,833 kilowatts per hour compared with 5,607kw in Britain and 7,818kw in Japan. Kepco, meanwhile, has been struggling to remain viable. The company’s debt reached 33.4 trillion won last year.

With more blackouts likely, and electricity price rises a near certainty, the problem could also have an impact on next year’s parliamentary and presidential elections. Earlier this month, an independent candidate shocked the political establishment by winning election as mayor of Seoul.

Civic activist Park Won Soon now holds the second most powerful political position in Korea, a job traditionally seen as a stepping stone to the presidency. Political disillusion, say commentators, runs deep in society, with many younger voters avoiding both the ruling conservative Grand National Party and its left-wing opponents.

Politicians are keenly aware of both the political and economic fallout. Blaming Kepco for the problem, President Lee Myung Bak gave its officials an angry tongue-lashing. "It makes my blood boil... I feel ashamed of even talking about it," he said.

The last time Mr Lee reprimanded government officials so harshly was earlier this year when he blamed financial industry regulators for not acting more quickly on signs of trouble in the nation’s savings banks.

The President’s public rebukes have become famous. One incident soon after he became president involved a visit to a local police station where officers were believed to be dragging their feet over the investigation of a child rape case.

Such public reprimands might get the police to investigate criminal cases with greater enthusiasm, but they are unlikely to compensate bank depositors or help resolve the electricity shortage.

Electricity rationing in particular is likely to be around for some time. Mr Lee may wish to put at least some of the blame on his predecessors. But his government will be judged on how quickly and efficiently it can resolve the problem – and restore the nation’s pride.

Copyright Singapore Press Holdings, 2011

Key Political Risks

Park Geun-hye, daughter of former dictator Park Chung-hee, won the December 19 presidential election. She has the support of the ruling conservative New Frontier Party, but as a woman in a deeply patriarchal society, she may have to work hard to assert her authority in government.  

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

  • Attitude of the government towards the chaebols (large family-owned conglomerates). Ms Park's father strongly supported chaebol development when he was president, but during the recent campaign Ms Park indicated that she would back reforms aimed at ensuring fair competition for smaller firms.
  • Measures designed to assist women enter the workforce, improve child care facilities and help lower income groups.
  • Official policies towards the North. In campaign speeches, Ms Park appeared to distance herself from her conservative predecessor's hardline stance. But powerful elements within the ruling New Frontier Party are likely to resist any change.
  • Continuing power transition in the North. It has gone smoothly so far. But there also appear to be those in the upper echelons of the regime that are unhappy with Kim Jong Un's credentials and see him as a weak leader.

About Me

My name is Dr Bruce Gale and I am a senior writer with the Singapore Straits Times. I studied at  LaTrobe University (BA Hons) in Melbourne and later at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Monash University (MA). My PhD thesis, which focussed on Malaysian political economy, was completed at the Malaysian National University (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia) in 1987.

From 1988 to 2003 I was Singapore Regional Manager for the Hong Kong based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC). 

I have written several books and articles on Southeast Asian affairs, including Political Risk and International Business: Case Studies in Southeast Asia (Pelanduk Publications, 2007). Books on language include Mastering Indonesian: a guide to reading Indonesian language newspapers (Pelanduk Publications, 2008)

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