: Super User; Malaysia; 15 September 2012; Hits: 1708

Najib Should Stick to his Reform Agenda

Malaysia's prime minister might like to to take a lesson in longevity from the life of an old resident of Terengganu, one of Malaysia's northern states.

When Abdul Rahman Abu Bakar died at the age of 117 at his home in Kampung Denger earlier this month, media reports said that he had earlier ascribed his long life to a firm decision not smoke. He also avoided sweet, salty and milky food.

In other words, he had a plan and he stuck to it.

Since taking office in April 2009, Prime Minister Najib Razak has presented himself as a reformer. Indeed, his current slogan Janji Ditepati (Promises Kept) takes advantage of that carefully cultivated image.

Unfortunately, the slogan reflects an aspiration that has yet to be fully realised. Populist policies, such as the introduction of a minimum wage and the removal of mandatory annual renewal of newspaper publishing licences, have already been implemented. Less popular ones, including a goods and services tax, income tax reforms and cuts to Malaysia’s growing subsidy bill, however, have not.

Mr Najib obviously knows where he wants to go, but unlike the late Mr Abdul Rahman Abu Bakar he appears unwilling to stick to the plan.

The reason seems obvious enough. National elections have to be held in Malaysia by April next year, and the conventional wisdom is that the prime minister is holding off on some of the more unpopular aspects of his reform agenda in the hope of winning a firm electoral mandate.

Since 1974, Malaysia has typically gone for an election every four years, one year less than the five-year maximum allowed under the constitution. But repeated delays in recent months have left major policies in limbo. Many observers had expected the polls to be called in June, just before the Muslim fasting month.

Current betting - for those still brave enough to try - is that the election will be held after the Deepavali holiday on November 13.

Earlier this month, Datuk Seri Idris, who heads Pemandu (the government agency responsible for overseeing Mr Najib's reform programmes) tried to revive the momentum of reform by announcing yet more government initiatives.

They include online tracking of police reports - an attempt to blunt opposition accusations that officials are fabricating recent improvements in crime statistics - as well as new measures to promote rural development and fight corruption.

The government, of course, is competing with the opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance, which has happily promised everything from a crackdown on corruption to lower car prices and university fees.

But by making fresh promises without completely delivering on the old, Mr Najib is in danger of being accused of indecisiveness. Indeed, the apparent reluctance to bite the election bullet reinforces the impression.

Following strictly to his dietary regime, Mr Abdul Rahman Abu Bakar reportedly never suffered from diabetes, stroke or heart disease. Nor did he need glasses to read, or a walking stick to move around the house.

Mr Najib should stick to his original plan too. Who knows? He may enjoy similarly unexpected side benefits. History suggests that Malaysians like strong leaders, even if they do not always agree with them.

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Key Political Risks

Now that the general assembly of UMNO, the senior partner in the ruling National Front coalition government, is over, the long-awaited general election could be held at any time. Constitutionally, Prime Minister Najib Razak has to call elections before April 21st 2012, after which the Elections Commission must hold the election within 60 days.

Widely expected to be the most hotly contested in Malaysian history, the polls will pit Mr Najib's government against a rival political coalition led by charismatic opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.

While the opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance attacks what is says are the corrupt and authoritarian ways of the government, Mr Najib has been describing the opposition coalition as an unnatural alliance of Islamic fundamentalists and multi-ethnic and liberal parties.

The strong economy is likely to favour the government.

WATCH OUT FOR:

The size of the expected government victory, particularly the ability of the ruling party to retake control of key states such as Selangor. Mr Najib needs to win convincingly if he is to implement long-delayed economic reforms. These include reducing oil and food subsidies and introducing a goods and services tax to boost government revenue.
The ability of Mr Najib to placate conservative elements of his Muslim-based UMNO party who disapprove of his policy of boosting national unity through greater inter-faith and ethnic tolerance.
The extent to which the government is able to convince the public that the coming elections will be free and fair. If the election result is close, influential organisation such as Bersih could declare them illegitimate, and stage major protests.