WITH municipal elections due at the end of the year, politicians in Taiwan’s ruling Kuomintang (KMT) are becoming increasingly nervous about supporting unpopular measures. Indeed, the KMT has been on the defensive since August last year, when a tardy response to Typhoon Morakot prompted widespread criticism and forced an increasingly unpopular President Ma Ying-jeou to replace his premier and other ministers.

Last month, the party suffered its third electoral setback in two months, losing three of four by-elections to the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). This followed the loss of three by-elections in January, and another setback in county chief polls in December.

Worried about future setbacks, the Legislative Yuan in January overturned President Ma’s unpopular agreement with Washington on the import of American beef. This revolt by government legislators over a trade deal with the United States has raised questions about the extent to which the President will be able to obtain legislative approval for similarly controversial trade agreements currently being negotiated with China.

On March 8, Health Minister Yaung Chih-liang put his finger on what he said was the nub of the problem. Announcing his resignation over the reluctance of the Cabinet to approve his proposals to reform the cash-strapped national health insurance system, Mr Yaung blamed Taiwan’s frequent elections.

Frequent elections, he said, encouraged Taiwanese governments to avoid implementing unpopular policies despite the fact that they were good for the country for fear of losing votes. Political observers have long noted the deleterious effects of frequent elections (often more than one a year), drawing attention to their expense and the possibility that “voter burnout” could lower turnout and thus undermine the legitimacy of winning candidates.

Frequent elections, it is argued, also sustain the mood of partisan combat without allowing for intermissions that would allow politicians to compromise for the sake of the national interest.

Not everyone agrees. An editorial in the China Post on March 12 insisted that the real problem was not the frequency of elections but the fact that Taiwanese politicians are unable to rid themselves of an “election mentality”.

As an example, the editorial pointed to the determined way President Ma campaigned for KMT candidates in last month’s by-elections. Only four seats were up for grabs and, given the KMT’s large majority in the legislature, their loss would not have made much difference to the balance of power. But with the by-elections being seen as a prelude to year-end municipal elections – themselves a warm-up to the 2012 presidential elections – the President felt he had to ensure a good showing.

The result of this political myopia, the editorial concluded, was that the President failed to work on other issues such as good governance, something that could conceivably boost his popularity over the longer term.

That said, the idea of reducing the number of elections has much to commend it. After all, politicians are less likely to succumb to an election mentality if there are fewer elections to focus on.

According to Minister of the Interior Jiang Yi-huah, the problem is already being addressed in a proposed amendment to the Local Government Act. The amendment calls for elections for special municipalities and their councillors, cities and counties and their councillors, as well as heads and representatives of townships, villages and boroughs, to be held on the same day from 2014.

This idea, however, has itself become a victim of the country’s polarised political culture. DPP spokesman Tsai Chi-chang, for example, has argued that one of the reasons there have been so many by-elections recently is because KMT lawmakers lost their seats after being convicted of corruption. Other critics have appealed to populist ideals. “The frequency of elections in a democratic country should not be so low,” said DPP legislator Kuan Bi-ling. Should such criticisms be widely accepted, KMT legislators may be similarly loath to support the amendment.

In theory, presidential and legislative elections could be held simultaneously in 2012. However, it is more likely that nothing will change.

Announcing his resignation as health minister on March 8, Mr Yaung spoke passionately to reporters about his intention to campaign for a referendum aimed at reducing the frequency of elections. But his subsequent decision to remain after the Cabinet approved an interim health insurance reform that included marginally higher premiums seems to have dampened his fervour.

Yet if Mr Yaung wants real change, he may have little choice but to press ahead. President Ma says he has instructed Mr Yaung to develop a new national health insurance system that includes separate premium rates for different income groups that can be implemented within two years. But with local elections scheduled for the end of this year and presidential elections in 2012, it is very unlikely the government will introduce such potentially unpopular reforms during this period.

“Election mentality” indeed.

Copyright © 2011 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd