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After almost two years of gutter politics, in which Malaysian politicians focussed on personal attacks rather than on substantive issues, the surprise acquittal of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim on Monday promises to turn Malaysian politics around.

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IS THE Malaysian economy about to enter another period of strong growth? For years, critics have decried the apparent inability of the country to build on the stellar economic expansion of earlier decades. A series of recent developments, however, suggests things might be about to change.

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Earlier this month, when delegates at the annual general assembly of Prime MInister Najib Razak's UMNO party repeatedly lashed out at the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP) for being anti-Islam and anti-Malay, DAP leaders cast themselves in the role of victims.

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Talk about planned reform efforts going wrong! A bill touted as relaxing laws to allow public gatherings to be held without a police permit has triggered large public demonstrations in Malaysia as opposition parties and civil society groups stir up public sentiment.

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WHEN will the ‘Malaysia Spring’ be? The next elections,” said Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, answering his own question during a recent media interview. The reference was to the “Arab Spring”, a pro-democracy movement that has brought down several authoritarian governments in the Arab world this year.

Key Political Risks

Now that the general assembly of UMNO, the senior partner in the ruling National Front coalition government, is over, the long-awaited general election could be held at any time. Constitutionally, Prime Minister Najib Razak has to call elections before April 21st 2012, after which the Elections Commission must hold the election within 60 days.

Widely expected to be the most hotly contested in Malaysian history, the polls will pit Mr Najib's government against a rival political coalition led by charismatic opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. 

While the opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance attacks what is says are the corrupt and authoritarian ways of the government, Mr Najib has been describing the opposition coalition as an unnatural alliance of Islamic fundamentalists and multi-ethnic and liberal parties.

The strong economy is likely to favour the government.

WATCH OUT FOR:

  • The size of the expected government victory, particularly the ability of the ruling party to retake control of key states such as Selangor. Mr Najib needs to win convincingly if he is to implement long-delayed economic reforms. These include reducing oil and food subsidies and introducing a goods and services tax to boost government revenue.
  • The ability of Mr Najib to placate conservative elements of his Muslim-based UMNO party who disapprove of his policy of boosting national unity through greater inter-faith and ethnic tolerance.
  • The extent to which the government is able to convince the public that the coming elections will be free and fair. If the election result is close, influential organisation such as Bersih could declare them illegitimate, and stage major protests.

About Me

My name is Dr Bruce Gale and I am a senior writer with the Singapore Straits Times. I studied at  LaTrobe University (BA Hons) in Melbourne and later at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Monash University (MA). My PhD thesis, which focussed on Malaysian political economy, was completed at the Malaysian National University (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia) in 1987.

From 1988 to 2003 I was Singapore Regional Manager for the Hong Kong based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC). 

I have written several books and articles on Southeast Asian affairs, including Political Risk and International Business: Case Studies in Southeast Asia (Pelanduk Publications, 2007). Books on language include Mastering Indonesian: a guide to reading Indonesian language newspapers (Pelanduk Publications, 2008)

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