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After stunning the nation by unilaterally announcing a slew of popular reform measures in September, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak could find the political initiative slipping away from him in the coming weeks.

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JUST how good are Malaysia’s economic prospects this year? The 7.2 per cent economic growth registered by the country in 2010 was the highest the country has achieved for 10 years. But it also came off a low base in the previous year, was driven by two government stimulus packages, and took place at a time when events in the Middle East and Japan were not casting a shadow on the global economy.

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“THIS (rise in foreign investment) demonstrates the belief of investors that the Malaysian government is able to deliver.” That, at least, was the explanation Malaysian International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed gave last month, commenting on a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), which revealed that foreign direct investment into the country had surged.

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RECENT developments suggest that the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) – the second-largest party in the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition – is about to embark on yet another round of self-flagellation. What is it about the MCA that encourages such self-destructive behaviour?

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POLITICS in Malaysia is beginning to settle down, and it is not a moment too soon. Thanks partly to the capital controls and reforms it introduced in the wake of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and its huge foreign exchange reserves, Malaysia’s economy has so far been largely insulated from the crisis that has swept the global economy.

Key Political Risks

Now that the general assembly of UMNO, the senior partner in the ruling National Front coalition government, is over, the long-awaited general election could be held at any time. Constitutionally, Prime Minister Najib Razak has to call elections before April 21st 2012, after which the Elections Commission must hold the election within 60 days.

Widely expected to be the most hotly contested in Malaysian history, the polls will pit Mr Najib's government against a rival political coalition led by charismatic opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. 

While the opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance attacks what is says are the corrupt and authoritarian ways of the government, Mr Najib has been describing the opposition coalition as an unnatural alliance of Islamic fundamentalists and multi-ethnic and liberal parties.

The strong economy is likely to favour the government.

WATCH OUT FOR:

  • The size of the expected government victory, particularly the ability of the ruling party to retake control of key states such as Selangor. Mr Najib needs to win convincingly if he is to implement long-delayed economic reforms. These include reducing oil and food subsidies and introducing a goods and services tax to boost government revenue.
  • The ability of Mr Najib to placate conservative elements of his Muslim-based UMNO party who disapprove of his policy of boosting national unity through greater inter-faith and ethnic tolerance.
  • The extent to which the government is able to convince the public that the coming elections will be free and fair. If the election result is close, influential organisation such as Bersih could declare them illegitimate, and stage major protests.

About Me

My name is Dr Bruce Gale and I am a senior writer with the Singapore Straits Times. I studied at  LaTrobe University (BA Hons) in Melbourne and later at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Monash University (MA). My PhD thesis, which focussed on Malaysian political economy, was completed at the Malaysian National University (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia) in 1987.

From 1988 to 2003 I was Singapore Regional Manager for the Hong Kong based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC). 

I have written several books and articles on Southeast Asian affairs, including Political Risk and International Business: Case Studies in Southeast Asia (Pelanduk Publications, 2007). Books on language include Mastering Indonesian: a guide to reading Indonesian language newspapers (Pelanduk Publications, 2008)

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