: Super User; Philippines; 02 November 2011; Hits: 1190

Aquino in a Bind over Peace Talks

IN A pattern that has repeated itself with depressing regularity for decades, yet another acrimonious debate has broken out in Manila about the wisdom of pursuing stalled peace talks with the rebel Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

And while President Benigno Aquino has so far rejected calls for a renewed military campaign, it remains to be seen how long he can resist the growing clamour.

The debate was sparked off on Oct 18, when MILF forces ambushed government troops on the troubled southern island of Basilan. The incident left 19 soldiers dead and encouraged many to question the sincerity of rebel negotiators. There have also been clashes on the main southern island of Mindanao.

“What peace talks are we talking about when they are engaging us in combat?” Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile is reported to have declared. Those demanding a tough military response include former president Joseph Estrada and Senators Panfilo Lacson and Miriam Defensor Santiago. Mr Lacson is a former director- general of the Philippine National Police, while Ms Santiago is a former presidential candidate and leader of the People’s Reform Party.

Talks in Malaysia between the government and the rebels have been stalled since August after rebel leaders rejected the government’s latest autonomy proposal.

Since 1997, the MILF has been in stop-start negotiations with Manila to end decades of conflict that has killed 120,000 people, displaced two million, and stunted economic growth in the poor but resource-rich Muslim areas in the south of the country.

The insurgency began in the late 1960s following the massacre of disaffected Muslim army recruits by government troops and the subsequent formation of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The MILF was formed by a breakaway faction in 1981.

Progress towards peace has been painfully slow. In January 1987, the MNLF accepted the Philippine government’s offer of semi-autonomy in several disputed regions. This led to a peace agreement and the establishment of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) in 1989. The MILF, however, refused to accept the accord and continued its insurgency operations.

Skirmishes between government troops and MILF units in 2000 prompted then President Estrada to abandon peace talks and order all-out war on the rebels – a policy that ended with the election of Mrs Gloria Arroyo in 2001. In July 2008, the government and the rebels reached a provisional agreement. However, the Supreme Court declared the accord unconstitutional on the grounds that it involved extending the boundaries of the ARMM into other provinces.

Just who is to blame for the latest upsurge in violence is difficult to determine. The rebels claim that the Oct 18 incident was a pre-emptive strike forced upon them after they learnt that the military had moved deep into their territory and was preparing to attack. The military denies this, saying that government troops were nowhere near MILF territory at the time of the encounter. The MILF has demanded an impartial investigation.

But while there are almost certainly several senior factions in the armed forces who favour a military solution, the MILF has also had difficulty controlling its field commanders. One well-known example is Ustaz Ameril Umbra Kato, who was blamed for an outbreak of fighting in Mindanao in 2008. Disowned by the MILF, he has since formed his own rebel group.

Responding to the latest incidents, President Aquino has ordered security forces to crack down on renegade rebels, but has rejected calls to attack the MILF proper. The MILF, he said, had agreed to coordinate with the government in bringing suspects to justice. Hours before Mr Aquino spoke, the military dropped bombs on a remote village in Zamboanga Sibugay province on Mindanao island. About 150 armed men, believed to be rogue Muslim rebels, had seized control of a village school after soldiers attacked their positions.

As always with the MILF, the way ahead seems murky. With public opinion polls showing that seven out of 10 Filipinos favour a military crackdown, Mr Aquino is under strong pressure to take a tougher line.

But there also appears to be a genuine desire for peace among at least some in the rebel camp. Not long after the President appeared on national television to announce his decision, a rebel spokesman told the media that the MILF had ordered its troops to stand down.

International pressure in favour of a continuation of the peace process is also strong. Last week, Mr Stephen Lillie, the British Ambassador to the Philippines, praised Mr Aquino’s decision to pursue peaceful dialogue. Britain is one of four governments in the International Contact Group supporting the peace talks.

For President Aquino, however, the real challenge is to convince his domestic critics that he has chosen the right path.

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Key Political Risks

President Benigno Aquino has stepped up efforts to lure foreign investors into the country, so far without much success. The country continues to be hobbled by widespread corruption and several long-running insurgencies.

However, the government has had some success in reducing the budget deficit. The president also remains popular with voters.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

Extent to which foreign and domestic investors show interest in big ticket infrastructure projects.
Increased spending on the air force and navy to counter Beijing's territorial claims in the disputed Spratly Islands. The issue could become an important point of contention at the East Asia forum in Indonesia in November.
The implementation of the "framework agreement" between Manila and the insurgent Moro Islamic Liberation Front announced in early October. If all goes well, a final peace deal may be signed by 2016.