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WHEN Indonesia’s National Statistics Bureau announced that the country’s annual inflation last month grew to an unexpected high of 4.53 per cent, some economists warned that the economy might be overheating.

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JUST when Indonesia seems about to confirm its place as the darling of foreign investors, a series of policy decisions has underlined just how deeply rooted economic nationalism is in the national psyche.

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IT IS not hard to be bullish about Indonesia’s economic prospects these days. Last year, while many countries remained bogged down by financial crises and the global economic slowdown, the Indonesian economy grew by 6.46 per cent, its fastest pace in 15 years.

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HOW do you understand the market for your products in a country as large and diverse as Indonesia? This is a question many companies are struggling to answer as their competitors ramp up advertising budgets.

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IN OCTOBER last year, when it was becoming increasingly clear that the Indonesian Stock Market (IDX) would end the year in a far better state than that of many other countries, Finance Minister Agus Martowardjojo called on local market players to help maintain the reputation of the local bourse.

Key Political Risks

The inability of the government led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to bridge the deep divisions between her populist government and its royalist opponents in the military and bureaucracy remains a major concern.

Prime Minister Yingluck has selected a competent economic team, but it is difficult for these technocrats to deliver on the new government's campaign promises without triggering inflation or hurting business. 

The government has also been unable to resolve the ongoing insurgency involving ethnic Malay Muslim rebels in the south.

 

WATCH OUT FOR:

  1. Attempts by the government to amend the constitution. The proposed rewrite is aimed removing legal measures initiated by the royalist generals who overthrew former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the current prime minister's elder brother, in 2006.
  2. Ballooning government debt as officials seek to finance government programmes aimed at subsidising rice prices in order to retain the support of farmers.
  3. The relationship between Prime Minister Yingluck and senior generals. Coups have been a common means of regime change in Thai history, and any attempt by the government to purge royalist elements in the top brass could trigger yet another. Thailand

About Me

My name is Dr Bruce Gale and I am a senior writer with the Singapore Straits Times. I studied at  LaTrobe University (BA Hons) in Melbourne and later at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Monash University (MA). My PhD thesis, which focussed on Malaysian political economy, was completed at the Malaysian National University (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia) in 1987.

From 1988 to 2003 I was Singapore Regional Manager for the Hong Kong based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC). 

I have written several books and articles on Southeast Asian affairs, including Political Risk and International Business: Case Studies in Southeast Asia (Pelanduk Publications, 2007). Books on language include Mastering Indonesian: a guide to reading Indonesian language newspapers (Pelanduk Publications, 2008)

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